A bold target amid shifting trade dynamics
According to Russian Fertilizer Producers Association (RFPA), Russia aims to lift its global share of mineral fertilizer exports from the current ~18–20% to 25% by 2030. TASS
The plan was announced by Andrei Guryev during a meeting with Vladimir Putin. Despite recent import bans and tariffs from the European Union, industry leaders remain confident about achieving this goal.
Why the shift to BRICS markets
- The RFPA notes that BRICS countries — such as India, China, Brazil and others — now account for nearly 50% of global mineral fertilizer consumption, making them a strategic focus for Russian exporters. MarketScreener UK
- Russia has already seen a four-fold increase in fertilizer exports to India in recent years, demonstrating strong traction in key non-Western markets.
- Leading Russian fertilizer firms — including Phosagro, Uralkali, Eurochem, Acron and Uralchem — continue to supply phosphate, potash, and nitrogen-based fertilizers to global markets, with growing emphasis beyond traditional European buyers.
Production and export volume growth
- The RFPA forecasts fertilizer production will reach 65 million metric tons in 2025, up from 63 million tons the previous year, as Russia increases output to support expanded exports.
- Exports during the first seven months of 2025 rose 7% year-on-year to 26.1 million tons. The momentum is expected to push annual export totals to record highs.
- The expansion strategy aligns with long-term forecasts that see Russian fertilizer output potentially rising to as much as 80 million metric tons by 2030, contingent on export growth and steady domestic demand.
Implications for global fertilizer markets
- The redirection of Russian exports toward BRICS countries may accelerate fertilizer supply to high-demand regions, potentially lowering prices for agricultural producers outside Europe.
- European markets — previously reliant on Russian fertilizers for as much as a quarter of supply — may face shortages or increased costs, especially as import tariffs escalate.
- For global fertilizer producers and importers, this shift could reshape trade patterns: exporters may redirect supply to emerging markets, while importers dependent on Russian supply may need to seek alternative sources or adapt to changes in availability and cost.
What’s driving Russia’s confidence
- Strong demand growth in developing economies (especially within BRICS), where fertilizer use is rising due to expanding agriculture.
- Diversified fertilizer output covering nitrogen, phosphate and potash allows Russian firms to serve a broad range of crop nutrition needs globally.
- Incremental expansions in production capacity and export infrastructure, aimed at meeting long-term demand and capitalizing on shifting global trade flows.
Conclusion: A strategic pivot reshaping global fertilizer trade
Russia’s ambition to control a quarter of the global fertilizer market by 2030 — despite Western trade restrictions — highlights a strategic pivot toward fast-growing markets in the Global South. For buyers and stakeholders in the agricultural supply chain, this could mean a reconfiguration of trade routes, competitive pricing, and altered fertiliser sourcing patterns worldwide.
